Judgment & Biases · Thinking
Overconfidence & Calibration
How sure should you be? Overconfidence in estimates and forecasts, calibration curves and Brier scores, Tetlock's expert-prediction studies and superforecasters, and practical methods to become better calibrated in trading and life.
Step 1 of 6 · Overview30 min read ·
Key idea
Prereqs: Conditional probability & Bayes; Thinking, Fast and Slow (Books). Next: Loss aversion & prospect theory. Sources: Alpert & Raiffa (1982), Tetlock's *Expert Political Judgment* (2005) and *Superforecasting* (2015, with Dan Gardner), Annie Duke's *Thinking in Bets*.Next: 1. Overconfidence