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Probability & Statistics · Probability

Conditional Probability & Bayes

How to update beliefs with evidence. Conditional probability, the law of total probability, Bayes' theorem, base rates and the medical-test paradox, odds form with likelihood ratios, and why traders and doctors both need this.

35 min · 6 steps · videoJump to quiz ↓
Lecture 4: Conditional Probability | Statistics 110 Harvard University · 50 min
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Step 1 of 6 · Overview35 min read ·
Key idea
Prereqs: Probability rules. Next: Random variables & expectation. Follows 3Blue1Brown's Bayes videos, Harvard Stat 110 ch. 2 and Tetlock's *Superforecasting* on updating.
Next: 1. Conditional probability

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