Adjacent: Business & Society · Building
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Decide well when you can't know the outcome: separate decision quality from luck ('resulting'), think in expected value and probabilities, use base rates, pre-mortems and kill criteria, match speed to reversibility, and keep a decision journal.
Step 1 of 5 · Overview30 min read ·
Key idea
Prereqs: Probability; Optionality & asymmetric bets. Next: Decision hygiene; Cognitive biases that cost money. Sources: Annie Duke, *Thinking in Bets* (2018) and *Quit* (2022); Gary Klein, 'Performing a Project Premortem' (HBR, 2007); Philip Tetlock, *Superforecasting* (2015).Next: 1. Decisions are bets