Strategy · Applied
Second-Order Thinking
Asking 'and then what?': first- vs second-level thinking in markets (Howard Marks), the seen and unseen (Bastiat), unintended consequences from rent control to bounties, Chesterton's fence, and a simple checklist.
Step 1 of 6 · Overview25 min read ·
Key idea
Prereqs: Behavioral economics. Next: Optionality & asymmetric bets; The Lindy effect. Sources: Howard Marks, *The Most Important Thing* (2011), ch. 1; Frédéric Bastiat, 'That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen' (1850); G.K. Chesterton, *The Thing* (1929).Next: 1. Marks's second-level thinking